From Mike Masnick at TechDirt Wireless:
For each of the past three years, someone has come out with a prediction that the current year would be "The Year of 3G" when third generation mobile phones and services would really gain user acceptance. Every year that's proven to be a very bad prediction. ... So, now, it turns out that it's not 2004, but maybe it's 2009 that will be the real year of 3G. At least that's what the latest predictions from Analysys Research seem to suggest. (full TechDirt Wireless article here).
As I said in an earlier post:
Just as bad is drooling over an alphabet soup of hot new 3G, 4G and xG wireless technologies that may or may not be rolled out in “the next 18 months” in “major markets” and may or not be supported by new handsets and may or may not make high speed wireless internet access cheap and easy everywhere. These technologies are going to usher in a golden age of watching wireless 3D interactive movies while commuting to work – and of course – this the killer application that everyone is waiting for.
Excuse my sarcasm, but any business model built on such services rolling out any time soon is doomed to failure.
A healthy wireless software industry demands focus on sevices where there are real networks, real devices, and, most critically, real users ready to pay.
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