Wireless Business Applications

Mobile Internet: Minimal Growth Because the Approach is Wrong

Stephen Baker writes about the Mobile Internet: a story of stagnation. The article quotes statistics from M:Metrics, Inc. of Seattle. The number of Americans using a mobile browser for news and other information appears to be falling.

Here are the numbers quoted by Baker  (unfortunately there is no link for the raw data):

January --    22,052,550 0
February--    22,628,052 2.6%
March --    21,533,717 -4.8%
April --    22,109,802 2.7%
May --    21,641,574 -2.1%

Here are my comments to his post:

If you think about it, mobile "browsing" is an obvious non-starter. Being mobile is absolutely the wrong situtation for "browsing" or any kind of navigating. On a mobile device you want just a few choices presented at any given time. You want your task handed to you in a well-defined order -- much like an MS Windows wizard. You want to be led through the task with just a few choices presented in context. There is more on this topic here.

The "wireless internet" will take off when there are applications and user interface models designed for small devices used by people on the go. Attempts to copy Microsoft Windows desktops and desktop Internet are doomed to failure because they are the wrong model force-fit from a previous generation of computing.

In the early 1990s IBM invested heavily in PC software that created visual interfaces by "screen-scraping" existing mainframe software -- they even mandated this as the PROPER way to build distributed applications. The success of Microsoft Windows and the Internet showed how short sighted this approach was. The mobile industry's current focus on miniature web screens and miniature desktops with application icons is similarly short sighted.

Form factor fallacies

    another Jim Chard guest entry

With little fanfare or recognition, handheld devices are replacing laptops and tablet PCs. The advantages are both obvious and subtle. Handhelds are always on; they don’t require time-consuming boot-up time. They are more cost effective. A company can buy 5 to 10 times as many handhelds as PCs for the same amount of money. Replacement for rugged use in the field becomes an expense item, not a capital item. It is certainly more convenient to keep your computing resource in your breast pocket or hanging from your belt than back in the truck or hotel room, or worse, dangling painfully from your shoulder.

Even more importantly, the PDA form factor is more appropriate for use in the field than a laptop or tablet. As long as bandwidth provides speedy updating and local data storage accommodates megabytes of data, the wireless handheld makes the laptop appear as an antiquated relic out in the field. The process of booting up and logging on vs the always available handheld literally saves thousands of dollars of wasted time in a large field force. And the ability to work with one hand rather than two hands on a keyboard (or using a stylus) means that field staff can multi process and update databases without pausing during their work. Capturing data and updating databases becomes part of the work process rather than a clunky intrusion at the end of the day. 

Nor is the small screen a limitation as handhelds develop the power to zoom in and out, display thousands of colors and navigate around a large drawing or x-rays. It wasn’t so long ago that we felt that we needed an E Size drawing to understand a blue print or a 14” x 17” film to understand an x-ray. Today we examine these images on a small computer screen with perfect comprehension; tomorrow we will view them on an even smaller handheld screen with equal comprehension. Not only x-rays and blueprints but maps, complex forms and detailed PowerPoint presentations can be rendered with perfect clarity and comprehension on the small screen, albeit in a different representation from that of a 19 inch flat panel monitor.

Transaction processing in the field (work orders, inspections and quality assurance, inventory receiving, etc) all require multiple pages and parts in a paper-based world. Wireless handhelds use displays tailored to the individual user (and easily customized), branching logic to emulate step-wise business processes, pick lists to minimize text entry, and feature-rich submenus to manipulate large databases or graphics. With careful analysis and design, a multi-page 8 ½ x 11 form can be reduced to a series of screens which allow a user to scroll and click the thumb wheel to readily scan and update  information. And all of this functionality and ease of use can be accomplished with a device that can easily be slipped into a shirt pocket.

Handhelds will displace laptops

(another Jim Chard entry)

Wireless applications began as pale imitations of their client server cousins with slower response times, limited data and dearth of user friendly features. As networks have become faster and more pervasive, devices more powerful, and developers more sophisticated about mobile applications, the software available to workers on the move has improved radically in its utility and productivity. As a consequence the barrier is continually being raised for software developers wishing to compete in the wireless data market. Just like Netscape and Internet Explorer kept raising the bar every 6 months when Internet browsers first emerged, wireless enterprise developers are competing to enrich functionality in wireless handhelds at an asymptotic rate.

Initial mobile applications were characterized by the need to synch devices physically at the end of the day. Or by lack of local data base capabilities resident on the handheld device. Or by data stores that were not replicated with server databases throughout the day. Therefore changes in inventory, project status, pricing, crew deployment, etc. were not reflected appropriately in either central or remote mobile databases. Management was still in an “out-of-sight, out-of-mind environment where activities could not be monitored throughout the day without reverting to voice, calling on the phone and asking “how ya doing?”

With the rollout of 3G networks and the introduction of handhelds with many megabytes of memory, the paradigm literally changes. Now mobile users are just as hooked into corporate networks as their desk-bound brethren. Their data is as fresh and accurate and their response time is nearly comparable. Data in the field is no longer untimely or out-of-date; it is just as accurate as data available at the desk top. The resulting enhancements to business management are reflected throughout the organization:

• inventory - management and stock reordering
• employee - routing and tasking
• accurate - time accounting
• customer - billing and cash mobilization

All these consequences, generated by wireless applications, will continue to squeeze inefficiencies out of operations. And these benefits are delivered over a device that is always on, fits comfortably in a breast pocket, is reasonably rugged and is priced at an affordable price point. Through a sort Darwinian principle of “survival of the fittest”, wireless handhelds will displace both laptops ­­and paper in corporate field operations and other mobile environments. Mobile workers will have no real need for a bulky, fragile and heavy device when a handheld can do the job better.

PDA Shipment Data from Gartner - What market are they analyzing?

Lots of interesting  data from Gartner's summary of first quarter 2005 PDA Shipments. But they seem to be making some arbitrary distinction between PDAs and Smartphones that is not all that relevant to purchasers.

Here are highlights of the study:

• RIM (BlackBerry) is now number 1 in hardware shipments with 711K in Q1, representing 20.8% of all shipments and 75.6% growth in the last 12 months. Palm is number 2 with 18% of all shipments and -26.3% growth (that is, shrinkage) in the last year.

• Looked at from an OS point of view, Windows CE is the clear winner 1,573K shipments, 46% market share and 43% annual growth. RIMOS is in second place with 711K shipments, 20.8% market share, and 75.6% growth.

• 55% of all PDAs shipped had wireless LAN (WiFi 802.11) or Wireless WAN (cellular) capabilities.  Wireless e-mail is driving this.

• Users are increasingly favoring full QWERTY keyboards and larger displays.

There is one big problem with interpreting this data. Popular "hybrid" devices like BlackBerry 7100 and Palm Treo 650 are NOT considered PDAs by Gartner, but instead smartphones. (There is no free summary Gartner research on smartphones that I can find, and no Gartner definition of "smartphone" that I can find.)

Gartner's distinction between PDA and smartphone is artificial and not related to real customer decisions The Palm Treo 650 -- excluded from this study -- is directly comparable to the mainstream BlackBerry devices (different numbers for different carriers, but all quite similar, see 72xx, 75xx, and 77xx models) which make up almost all of the 711K units shipped by RIM and included in this study. Both BlackBerry and Treo have big color screens, QWERTY keyboards, full PIM features (address book, calendar, and contacts), and wireless email. The BlackBerry 7100 series compromises between a normal phone keyboard and QWERTY and has a more "phone-ish" size and shape. To me, it also should clearly be compared.

When I talk with customers looking for higher end devices, they compare BlackBerry, Treo, and various Windows CE phones in a standard PDA form factor (like the IPAQ 6315). If they want someting more like a normal phone but still including some PIM or application features, they look at a different class of devices with normal 12 key phone keyboards and normal phone shape. This is what I would call smartphones.